Indian Political League

Its Election time.Clearly the Indian political league has taken over the Indian Premier League as Cricket has to move to South Africa now.Though it’s a bit disappointing but better safe than sorry.(The concerns are genuine when we don’t even have enough security forces to guard elections with looming threat of terrorism)

Now talking about the Elections,as a voter we have three choices broadly in front of us,namely :
United Progressive Alliance(UPA,Congress the leader)
National Democratic Alliance(NDA,BJP the leader)
Third Front(Left parties are the mainstay)

The following factors can influence voters when they cast their votes for the 543 seats of the 15th Lok Sabha,from 16 April to 13 May:

1.The win on the Diplomacy front of the UPA(Pak accepting its soil used for terror).When NDA was in power and attack on parliament happened,all it did was to mobilise forces in operation Parakaram,which resulted in nothing but waste of money.

2.The strong will of Congress led to Indo-US Nuclear Deal coming into effect.Though the foundation of this deal was laid by the NDA.

3.The unemployment is an issue with 5 Lakh jobs lost in India.Mostly it can be blamed on world recession,but people need solutions from our leaders.

4.The prices of food commodities have remained high for most part of the rule of UPA and they are still high though we are staring at Deflation.(Some say its just Disinflation).My mother says price rise was mostly never an issue when NDA ruled.

5.The BJP has raised its communal head again with Varun Gandhi's hate speech and Hindutva being an issue.Now,it may work in their favour but on the moral grounds BJP has lost already in my point of view.On the other hand Congress works all out to introduce caste base quotas and minority appeasement!

6.Everyday the semantics of politics is changing in India.BJD has left NDA.Laloo and Ram Vilas Paswan are virtually fighting against congress in Bihar.So,is Samajwadi Party in UP.PMK has also left UPA.The old partners of NDA like Jayalalita and TDP are moving towards the Third Front!!!!

7.There are too many candidates for the post of Prime Minister.Advani and Manmohan Singh are the front runners.But you never know with Mayawati,Sharad Pawar,Prakash Karat and even Deve Gowda lining up for the post.Now the voters have to keep in mind that who is most trust worthy and able among them.

8.Development is a key issue as we have already seen how Sheila dixit came to power in Delhi and Shiv Raj Chauhan in MP purely on the development plank.The voters are waking up to the performance of the government.

9.Lastly,a stable Govt at the centre is a must.Because if it’s a khichdi Govt then no one can take a stand.The regional aspirations should not over rule the National agenda.This is the key.So,even if a regional party candidate has done well,you may want to vote for a national party x because you want to see it in power and making national policies.

Above were the issues that randomly came to my mind.If you have some more then do tell me as I may cast my precious vote this time.I hope you do the same :)

How Duckworth Lewis method actually works

I have been following cricket passionately over many years.There have been many matches where there have been stoppages due to rain and suddenly,magically we get to know what is the new total that is to be chased by the team.Out of curiousity,I researched how this method actually works and here is the result…
The D/L method was devised by two English statisticians, Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis. It was first used in international cricket in the second game of the 1996/7 Zimbabwe versus England One Day International series, which Zimbabwe won by 7 runs and was formally adopted by the International Cricket Council in 2001 as the standard method of calculating target scores in rain shortened one-day matches.The D/L method works using the notion that teams have two resources with which to make as many runs as they can

1. The number of overs to play
2. Number of wickets in hand.
A table, based on the scores of the past ODI’s, which gives the percentage of resources that are available to a team at the end of every bowl and every wicket has been made. Its like a log table


Case 1
India has scored 250 runs in 50 overs. Australia has lost 7 wickets in 40 overs scoring 180(yeah, in my dreams). Now rain God shows mercy on Australians and the match is not played further. Lets see who is the winner.
Did India have any interruptions while batting? No. So the resource at its disposal was 100%.
When Australia started batting, it had complete resources. 100%
After 40 overs and 7 wickets down, the resources left with Australia = 20.6 %(Acc to the Table)
Now since, no play is possible further, can Australia use this remaining resource? No.
So Australia used 100 – 20.6 = 79.4% of its resources.
Now lets see how much India would have scored with 79.4% resources available.
Plain and simple mathematics, isn’t it?
250 * (79.4/100) = 198.50 which is rounded off to 198 and Australia needed 199 to win.
But how much did they score? 180. So India wins the match.Now let me state the rule corresponding to this example.
Note the resource % team had at the start of the innings. (Here both India and Australia had 100%)
Using the table calculate the resource % lost due to each interruption. (Australia lost 20.6 %)
Calculate the resource percentage available (Australia had 79.4% available)
Reset the target set by the first team using the %resource available to the second team.
With 100% resource India scored 250.
With 79.4%, it would have scored 250 *79.4 /100 = 198.50

The previous case is applicable when the team batting first is not interrupted at all.

Case 2
India is playing first and the match is already made a 40 overs match due to rains.
Lets say India scores 200 runs. (With what % of resources? 90.3%. right?)
Australia scores 150 runs in 30 overs and has lost 5 wickets. The play is interrupted again. Now only 5 overs are remaining.
After 30 overs, Australia is 150/5.
How much are the resources left? 5 wickets in hand and 10 overs = 27.5%

Now 5 overs are lost due to rain. And only 5 overs are remaining. So with 5 wickets in hands and 5 overs remaining, how much Australia has? 16.4%
Clearly Australia has lost 27.5% - 16.4% = 11.1% due to rain.
So the Resource available to Australia is 90.3% - 11.1% = 79.2%
Now reset the target set by India considering they played with 79.2% resources.
200 * 79.2/90.3 = 175.42. So India’s score is 175 and Australia needs 26 more runs in 5 overs to win the match.Lets formulate the rule now.

If team 2 has less resources than team 1(Australia had 79.2% available to India’s 90.3%),
Calculate the ratio of the resources available to the two teams. Reset the Team 1’s score using this ratio.Simple right?
This rule is applicable when the rain has affected the number of overs in a match before the match started. And then again when the team batting second is batting.

Case 3
India is batting first and the score is 200/7 at the end of 40 overs when Rain halts the play. Now there is sufficient rain to make the match a 40 overs affair. Clearly Australia cant be asked to score 201 in 40 overs since that would be disadvantage to India which went into play thinking it has to play 50 overs. Had it known it has to play 40 overs, it would have started hitting at the end of 33 over or so. Right?

So we need to reset the target for Australia.
India has lost 7 wickets and 10 overs. So it has lost 20.6% of the resources due to the rains.They started with 100% resources. But they have used only 100% - 20.6% = 79.4%.Now Australia will start with 90.3% since it has lost 10 overs. The difference between the resources available to Australia and India is 90.3% - 79.4% = 10.9%

So Australia had to be set a target of 200 + 10.9% of 200. Right? Not quite. From the statistics gathered over a period of time. The average score in a 50 full overs match has been found out to be 225.
So the reset score is 200 + 10.9% of 225 = 200 + 24.53 = 224.53 or 224

So Australia would need 225 runs to win. (This 225 has nothing to do with the 225 used to calculate the additional runs required.)
Let us set the rule for this also.
If team 2 has more resources than team 1, find out the excess resource. (Australia had 90.3% to India’s 79.4%)
Add the excess as a % of 225(average runs scored in 50 overs) and add those to the total of Team 1.(10.9% of 225 is 24.53 and 24.53 + India’s score of 200 = 224.53)

This rule is applicable when the team batting first starts with 100% resources but the game is shortened due to rains. And team 1 has less over than expected.

(Source-Cricinfo.com,Cricbuzz.com)

Slumdog...A bitter pill

Watched Slumdog Millionaire recently.Had to see what Danny Boyle had done to get 10 Oscar nominations with an Indian cast and a Mumbai based theme that we have not been able to achieve for long.Must say it’s a good one but at heart I believe there have been many a better movie made in Bollywood before.

Slumdog has made the reality stand right in front of our eyes and shown us the stark side of India.It has started a debate over here,as to whether the poverty of India has been sold and depiction of our country has been made in a very poor light.Even people like Amitabh Bachchan and Arindam Chaudhari have been a part of this debate.Yes,we have slums,yes some people are rouge but to say that this is the “Real India” is I would say taking it too far,as the movie has shown.Can't but help the feeling that if this movie had an Indian name behind it instead of a British, it would not have been recognized the way it has been now.

A positive..Thanks to Slumdog,the world has woken up to the genius of AR Rehman.He has been weaving magic since long :)
Finally, Danny Boyle and the team have done a superb job,but I would say a Taare Zameen Par(not even nominated) deserves an Oscar much more than a Slumdog Millionaire.

Is Baar Nahin....

Is baar nahin

Is baar jab woh choti si bachchi mere paas apni kharonch le kar aayegi
Main usey phoo phoo kar nahin behlaoonga
Panapney doonga uski tees ko
Is baar nahin

Is baar jab main chehron par dard likha dekhoonga
Nahin gaoonga geet peeda bhula dene wale
Dard ko risney doonga,utarney doonga andar gehrey
Is baar nahin

Is baar main na marham lagaoonga
Na hi uthaoonga rui ke phahey
Aur na hi kahoonga ki tum aankein band karlo,gardan udhar kar lo main dawa lagata hoon
Dekhney doonga sabko hum sabko khuley nangey ghaav
Is baar nahin

Is baar jab uljhaney dekhoonga,chatpatahat dekhoonga
Nahin daudoonga uljhee door lapetney
Uljhaney doonga jab tak ulajh sake
Is baar nahin

Is baar karm ka hawala de kar nahin uthaoonga auzaar
Nahin karoonga phir se ek nayee shuruaat
Nahin banoonga misaal ek karmyogi ki
Nahin aaney doonga zindagi ko aasani se patri par
Utarney doonga usey keechad main,tedhey medhey raston pe
Nahin sookhney doonga deewaron par laga khoon
Halka nahin padney doonga uska rang
Is baar nahin banney doonga usey itna laachaar
Ki paan ki peek aur khoon ka fark hi khatm ho jaye
Is baar nahin

Is baar ghawon ko dekhna hai
Gaur se
Thoda lambe wakt tak
Kuch faisley
Aur uskey baad hausley
Kahin toh shuruat karni hi hogi
Is baar yahi tay kiya hai

… Prasoon Joshi
(Source-Rediff.com)